The Official Bendis Board 2012 Presidential Campaign Thread

[MIKE D]

Arpaio is an idiot and a crook and before his life is up he'll be a resident in a federal penitentiary.

[Matt Jay]

Like I said, Romney's got a lot more variability than Santorum. If gas prices go up and Occupy continues being terrible at PR, he could be the next President. On the other hand, if things go Obama's way over the next 8 months and Romney makes a few more gaffes, Romney could get under 150 electoral votes.

Santorum's trajectory was extremely predictable. He was going to energize the base, lose independents by a massive margin, and lose in a manner that might have been a bit more respectable but was much more inevitable.

I'm not doubting that Romney's the best of what's left of the field. Just noting how much of the base has not been turning out for him, or even turning out for the primaries in general.

OWS couldn't drag Obama down. He hasn't hitched his wagon to them any more than Romney has.

[Foolish Mortal]

Well it looks like Thursday may prove to a contentious news day

SHERIFF JOE TO RELEASE 'INVESTIGATION' OF OBAMA...

I'll be waiting on pins and needles for Sheriff Joe's findings.

Alabama Denies DNA Test To Potentially Innocent Man On Death Row

So I'm assuming this garbage is solely to protect the prosecutor's case? Is that the job of the state to do that?

NDAA getting ignored:

How Obama Ignored The NDAA’s Military Custody Provision

So all this strum and drang over the possibility of American citizens being detained was for nought?

[Ray G.]

I'm not doubting that Romney's the best of what's left of the field. Just noting how much of the base has not been turning out for him, or even turning out for the primaries in general.

OWS couldn't drag Obama down. He hasn't hitched his wagon to them any more than Romney has.

No, but Populism's likely to be a big part of Obama's campaign against Romney, and if OWS keeps assaulting cops, any rhetoric that sounds like them is going to be used against him.

Either way, whole lotta variables before November. I've seen some polls with Romney tied or leading by a little, others with huge Obama leads. We'll see what happens once the race settles down.

[Dreg]

No, but Populism's likely to be a big part of Obama's campaign against Romney, and if OWS keeps assaulting cops, any rhetoric that sounds like them is going to be used against him.

I think Obama realizes how badly Republicans fucked themselves over by getting into bed with the Tea Party. It's too late for them to extract the batshit crazy at this point, and they're getting their just desserts. Look at all the truly despicable social causes Romney's gotten mixed up in just because he had to court their vote. Obama's in a much better position. Occupy could riot and he still has enough distance from them to plausibly rebuke them. As convenient as it would be for the Right, Occupy is not the Democratic Tea Party.

[Ray G.]

I think Obama realizes how badly Republicans fucked themselves over by getting into bed with the Tea Party. It's too late for them to extract the batshit crazy at this point, and they're getting their just desserts. Look at all the truly despicable social causes Romney's gotten mixed up in just because he had to court their vote. Obama's in a much better position.

I don't see what this has to do with whether Obama is able to use populism as an effective attack in the campaign.

[Matt Jay]

No, but Populism's likely to be a big part of Obama's campaign against Romney, and if OWS keeps assaulting cops, any rhetoric that sounds like them is going to be used against him.

Either way, whole lotta variables before November. I've seen some polls with Romney tied or leading by a little, others with huge Obama leads. We'll see what happens once the race settles down.

My guess is that, as people continue to get exposed Romney, his "unfavorable" rating will continue to go up. The only people that will continue to rate him favorably will generally be partisan Republicans. I think his likeability problem is a bigger hurdle than a potentially recovering economy. I just don't see the middle going for someone they don't like.

[Ray G.]

My guess is that, as people continue to get exposed Romney, his "unfavorable" rating will continue to go up. The only people that will continue to rate him favorably will generally be partisan Republicans. I think his likeability problem is a bigger hurdle than a potentially recovering economy. I just don't see the middle going for someone they don't like.

Romney's gaffes seem to be the easily controllable kind. He says stupid things that come off wrong, so you script him better. I think once he's got the entire GOP machine working for him, things will improve on that front.

[Dreg]

I don't see what this has to do with whether Obama is able to use populism as an effective attack in the campaign.

Because as polls have shown, the sentiments expressed by OWS are a hell of a lot bigger than the membership of OWS. Didn't you hear? The Muppets are class warriors now. Conservatives have beaten, raped, and eaten the dead horse that was their "class warfare" propaganda, and embellished it to the point of making it meaningless. The accusations amount to a very dumb, shrill kid calling wolf every 5 minutes.

Playing up the class warfare bullshit would also have the added effect of making Republicans seem even more out of touch with the poor and middle class, because when you have Romney screaming "class warfare!" it has the same implications as Christians screaming "help! help! I'm being oppressed!" It was a lousy way to frame an argument when they first started using it, and with a billionaire as its mouthpiece, it will be even more offensive to people who were fired, hurt, or discriminated against because of billionaires or Wallstreet. Poor and middle class people know what actual class warfare feels like, and they often lose jobs, houses, and lives because of it. It won't go in his favor.

[Ray G.]

Because as polls have shown, the sentiments expressed by OWS are a hell of a lot bigger than the membership of OWS. Didn't you hear? The Muppets are class warriors now. Conservatives have beaten, raped, and eaten the dead horse that was their "class warfare" propaganda, and embellished it to the point of making it meaningless. The accusations amount to a very dumb, shrill kid calling wolf every 5 minutes.

Playing up the class warfare bullshit would also have the added effect of making Republicans seem even more out of touch with the poor and middle class, because when you have Romney screaming "class warfare!" it has the same implications as Christians screaming "help! help! I'm being oppressed!" It was a lousy way to frame an argument when they first started using it, and with a billionaire as its mouthpiece, it will be even more offensive to people who were fired, hurt, or discriminated against because of billionaires or Wallstreet. Poor and middle class people know what actual class warfare feels like, and they often lose jobs, houses, and lives because of it. It won't go in his favor.

A couple of more incidents like the one in Sacramento, and people aren't going to be talking about their actual ideas so much as the tendency of cops to get injured around them.

I think Romney probably wants to keep the focus away from questions of inequality, for obvious reasons. But if Obama wants to beat that drum, he'll have to deal with both the advantages and disadvantages. The advantages being that a lot of people have suffered from the bad economy, the disadvantage being that it ties him to an organization with a lot of problems.