2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

[Ray G.]

Hrm, some info I wasn't aware of -- might help when looking at MTC numbers in the future.

Apparently they don't estimate over 140 mil for ANYTHING.

Of course, midnights for Avengers were lower than expected, and a lot of the business was from walk ups, but still.. that's gotta change or they're going to be off for a lot of future blockbusters.

Anyways, RS is saying low 40s for Dark Shadows.

That sounds about right. Dark Shadows will find an audience.

I'm thinking next weekend is likely 75-85 for Avengers, 40 or so for Dark Shadows.

[HOOKS]

From earlier in the thread:

Hunger Games will not do that well. I nerd-guarantee it.

Can we get our nerd-money back?

[Ray G.]

From earlier in the thread:



Can we get our nerd-money back?

This is the second time that I predicted a movie I had zero interest in as doing extremely well, and was the only person who got it.

Oh, how I wish I had been wrong about Avatar...

[majorjoe23]

I don't think anyone necessarily thinks DRK NEEDS to beat TA.. but there's some Batman fans who might argue.

It's more symptomatic of the usual summer blockbuster online fights, where one group brags that "their film"will beat all others and trash talk all year long leading up to it. Some times resulting in avatar bets, ban bets, etc.

I mean, there's people who are now suggesting that TDKR should give up on trying to beat the record and open a day or two earlier.

With DKR already opening on a wednesday, wouldn't the weekend grosses of the two films not be comparable anyway?

[HOOKS]

This is the second time that I predicted a movie I had zero interest in as doing extremely well, and was the only person who got it.

Oh, how I wish I had been wrong about Avatar...

Avatar made its money in 2010. Transformers still won 2009!

#stillbitter

[WhindamPryce]

From earlier in the thread:



Can we get our nerd-money back?

Holy shit, I don't even remember saying that. I think it was before I knew that Hunger Games was based on a popular book.

No, you will not be getting anything.

[HOOKS]

Holy shit, I don't even remember saying that. I think it was before I knew that Hunger Games was based on a popular book.

No, you will not be getting anything.

Hey, Battleship might still win the year, buddy.

[Taxman]

Since I don't see it here, apparently the estimates were conservative.

1	N	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$207,438,708	-	4,349	-	$47,698	$207,438,708	$220	1
2	1	Think Like a Man	SGem	$8,106,166	-54.0%	2,010	-5	$4,033	$73,135,600	$12	3
3	3	The Hunger Games	LGF	$5,587,661	-48.3%	2,794	-778	$2,000	$380,614,659	$78	7
4	2	The Pirates! Band of Misfits	Sony	$5,502,482	-50.6%	3,358	-	$1,639	$18,665,941	$55	2
5	4	The Lucky One	WB	$5,368,115	-50.3%	3,005	-170	$1,786	$47,775,060	-	3
6	5	The Five-Year Engagement	Uni.	$5,029,110	-52.6%	2,941	+5	$1,710	$19,133,015	$30	2
7	6	Safe (2012)	LGF	$2,677,125	-66.1%	2,271	+5	$1,179	$13,080,883	-	2
8	7	The Raven	Rela.	$2,636,780	-63.8%	2,209	+6	$1,194	$12,176,125	$26	2
9	8	Chimpanzee	BV	$2,484,456	-52.5%	1,531	-36	$1,623	$23,101,889	-	3
10	9	The Three Stooges	Fox	$1,832,333	-64.5%	2,174	-931	$843	$39,669,015	$30	4

[Taxman]

Here is the all-time opening chart sorted by earnings per screen.

1	1	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$207,438,708	100.0%	4,349	$47,698	$207,438,708	5/4/2012
2	299	Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour	BV	$31,117,834	47.7%	683	$45,561	$65,281,781	2/1/2008
3	2	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$169,189,427	44.4%	4,375	$38,672	$381,011,219	7/15/2011
4	4	The Hunger Games	LGF	$152,535,747	40.1%	4,137	$36,871	$380,614,659	3/23/2012
5	3	The Dark Knight	WB	$158,411,483	29.7%	4,366	$36,283	$533,345,358	7/18/2008
6	5	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$151,116,516	44.9%	4,252	$35,540	$336,530,303	5/4/2007
7	6	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	Sum.	$142,839,137	48.2%	4,024	$35,497	$296,623,634	11/20/2009
8	7	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1	Sum.	$138,122,261	49.1%	4,061	$34,012	$281,287,133	11/18/2011
9	8	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$135,634,554	32.0%	4,133	$32,817	$423,315,812	7/7/2006
10	13	Spider-Man	Sony	$114,844,116	28.4%	3,615	$31,768	$403,706,375	5/3/2002

Avengers is only the seventh widest opening ever.

Eclipse was the widest opening and got completely crushed by just about everything else in the top ten widest in terms of earning per screen.

[Cth]

Well, looks like the guy who nailed the 200+ figure, and the Sunday figure while everyone else was wrong, was right once again..

He had Monday down for roughly 19 mil.

It's the second best drop for a summer opener in the last 10 years right next to Spider-Man's -65.3% vs -66.8% for TA.

Spider-Man adj Monday is $15,042,300

TA has an 19 mil $ Monday. If 3D adds 15% to a gross it adds about 2.85 mil for TA. So at around 16.15 without 3D +.

His latest projection:

Avengers' Monday was inflated due to spillover business from Sunday. Should drop around 15% on Tuesdsay.

Also:

Friday:
Highest before: Spider-Man 3 - $59.8m
Avengers: $80.8m(+35%)

Saturday:
Highest before: Spider-Man 3 - $51.3m
Avengers: $69.6m(+36%)

Sunday:
Highest before: Spider-Man 3 - $39.9m
Avengers: $57.1m(+43%)

Monday:
Highest before: Spider-Man - $11m
Avengers: $18.9m(+72%)

Tuesday:
Highest before: Spider-Man - $10m
Avengers: $??.?m(+??.?%)