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View Poll Results: What will be the top grossing movie of 2012?

Voters
136. You may not vote on this poll
  • THE DARK KNIGHT RISES

    59 43.38%
  • THE AVENGERS

    52 38.24%
  • THE HOBBIT

    20 14.71%
  • AMAZING SPIDER-MAN

    3 2.21%
  • G.I. JOE RETALIATION

    0 0%
  • MEN IN BLACK 3

    0 0%
  • BRAVE

    0 0%
  • THE TITANIC

    0 0%
  • STAR WARS EPISODE I

    1 0.74%
  • Other

    1 0.74%
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Thread: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

  1. #341
    Hard Boiled silverboy's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Ray G. View Post
    Yeah, that was my #4. It's going to absolutely own the end of the year.
    It depends on the marketing. On it's own, I don't think THE HOBBIT inspires a ton of excitement. It's all about whether or not they can drum up people's nostalgia for the LOTR trilogy. It will be interesting to see how those movies haved aged (positive or negative) in the public consciousness.
    - mike


  2. #342
    ~*~ DISNEY PRINCESS ~*~ Taxman's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Patton View Post
    The former. Theres no way Avengers and Dark Knight don't clear that.

    But I could see it draining some from every other movie.
    I am just going to be conservative and disagree.

  3. #343
    SPOILERS INSIDE ©™ Cth's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    For Ray -

    http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_st...d-of-the-world

    Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
    Brave Jun 22, 2012 Disney $58,000,000 $220,000,000

    PROS:

    - Its reception online has been very positive with 8,000+ tweets generated by its first two trailers -- way above where Cars 2 was at the same point in the marketing cycle.
    - Pixar delivers its first original film in three years.
    - Prior to last year's Cars 2 ($192 million), Pixar carried a streak of nine consecutive films that reached $200 million domestically.
    - Recent heroine-led Tangled was a $200+ million domestic success. How to Train Your Dragon's ($218 million) Celtic theme also makes it a great comparison.
    - Disney has a history of similar female protagonist-centric films which did very well: Mulan, Beauty and the Beast, The Little Mermaid, etc. The precedence for success is certainly there.

    CONS:

    - Cars 2 left a bad taste for some moviegoers, especially considering Pixar's own lofty standards and audiences' expectations of them.
    - Madagascar 3 could satiate some of the demand from families looking for a CG animated pic when it opens two weeks earlier, although strong word of mouth for Brave may negate that in the long run.
    - Ice Age: Continental Drift being only three weeks away could cut into its holding power.
    - Young boys will probably be more attracted to films like The Amazing Spider-Man and G.I. Joe: Retaliation when they open one week later.

  4. #344
    Lord of the OOMPH!!! Ray G.'s Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    Sounds about right, but I'd hope it would open higher.

    I don't think Cars 2 will really factor into people's opinions of this, at least I hope not. With Madagascar and Ice Age being so tired and skewing younger, not sure what their impact will be.

    I think it'll do a bit better than those predictions and land at #5 for the year, just edging out the last Twilight.
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  5. #345
    SPOILERS INSIDE ©™ Cth's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    RS is projecting Avengers at the mid 160s. No word from MTC yet.

    Also..

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/larissaf...ue-the-movies/

    Marvel's Five-Year Plan For The Avengers To Rescue The Movies

    In order to understand Marvel’s approach in promoting the highly anticipated The Avengers movie, it’s necessary to step back in time to 2008.

    Five years ago, Marvel executives developed a comprehensive plan involving four superheroes to culminate with one “uber” movie, says Marvel’s Paul Gitter. “We took the superheroes — Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, and Hulk — that we felt were the most relatable, relevant, and aspirational to build into one package. Every Marvel movie since 2008 was created with the full intention of this super franchise.”

    Yet, promoting a movie with four spotlight-hogging superheroes is not without its challenges. “It’s definitely a complex brand,” says Marvel’s Paul Gitter. “Instead of just one, you have four ingredients [Iron Man, Hulk, Captain America, Thor] to brand merchandise and get SKUs [at retail].”

    As a result, The Avengers emphasizes the “Core Four” rather than any one specific superhero in TV and print advertisements. And there’s a concentrated focus to showcase all members equally on Avengers merchandise.

    Marvel is also releasing individual character merchandise in “waves” to help ensure superheroes receive their turn in the spotlight. For example, the first wave of The Avengers toys by Hasbro (which holds the toy license for the property) is heavy on Iron Man and Captain America. The second wave will see an increase in toys for Thor and the villain Loki, while the third wave will emphasize the least known characters, Hawkeye and Black Widow, says Hasbro’s Daniel Benkwitt. Retailers will also receive “surprise” boxes of Avengers toys in which the character SKUs are just randomly thrown together.

    Nonetheless, fans inherently prefer certain superheroes over others. “It’s just like you would think — Iron Man and Captain America sell more than Thor,” says Gitter. However, The Hulk may soon surpass them all. Marvel executives have been “pleasantly surprised by the phenomenal response” to this green superhero, and expect this fan affinity to further strengthen once the movie opens. “His sales are up in a major way. We repositioned him from where he was always misunderstood to now depicting him in a more heroic and aspirational manner,” says Gitter.

    If Hulk’s successful turnaround continues, Gitter says Marvel “will spin him off to a stand-alone program next year,” supported by a big budget franchise movie in 2015. The entertainment studio is also exploring ways to promote Hulk as a “corporate icon,” similar to MetLife’s usage of Peanuts’ Snoopy, where The Hulk’s image conveys a message about channeling strength to overcome workplace challenges.

    Marvel’s multi-year strategy also played a role in amassing more than $100 million in promotional support for the Avengers film. Starting in 2008, Marvel approached partners with the understanding that relationships would be multi-year, multi-movie agreements. “There are many opportunities for brands to align with the big commercial in the sky [Gitter’s term for blockbuster movies], but we want to develop sustainable relationships [with our promotional partners].” As such, Harley-Davidson, Dr Pepper, and Acura are a few of the brands who initially supported individual Marvel franchises and are back again for The Avengers.

    This hefty promotional support meant Marvel had to be proactive to avoid superhero oversaturation. “We looked at every retailer strategically to see how can we be different. We think we came up with a nice mix,” says Gitter.

    Walmart’s program, for instance, centers on technology and the Marvel Avengers Super Hero Augmented Reality mobile app. Shoppers have instant access to Hawkeye, but can only “unlock” Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, the Hulk, and Black Widow in the aisles of the store. Comparatively, Marvel worked with clothing retailer Aeropostale to develop visually distinctive displays to catch the attention of “hip and trendy” teens. Target’s The Avengers initiative utilizes broadcast and traditional media, and Toys R Us is about the in-store experience, and has opened Avengers-themed in-store boutiques at 600 locations.

    While The Avengers’ May 4 opening marks the end of the current multi-year plan, Marvel has already developed a detailed marketing strategy for the next five years. Whereas this approach saw the feature film as the finish line, the upcoming campaign will “synergize” the Avengers into a “multi-platform brand that can live 365 days a year.” To that end, Marvel is introducing digital initiatives, new print and comic book titles, and The Avengers animated TV series on the Cartoon Network in 2013. Iron Man 3 hits theaters next year, and Captain America and Thor sequels are in the works. Although the Black Widow isn’t yet scheduled for her own stand-alone movie, the character’s lifestyle will inspire a collection of athletic gear and beauty products.

    It’s also likely that Marvel superheroes will soon be spotted in the theme parks of its corporate parent Disney, and in Broadway shows, similar to Marvel’s Spider-Man: Turn Off The Dark. Gitter doesn’t directly confirm these initiatives, only stating that Marvel is “exploring all land-based opportunities, including stand-alone shows and attractions.”

  6. #346
    SPOILERS INSIDE ©™ Cth's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    And it starts getting interesting..

    MTC has Avengers listed at 140
    RS has Avengers listed in the mid 160s

    The rule generally says when MTC is lower than RS, it's even lower than MTC lists. Inception defied the rule, so it'll be interesting to see if Avengers does too.

    With the wide spread piracy, it'll be interesting to see if it impacts things any.

  7. #347
    Lord of the OOMPH!!! Ray G.'s Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Cth View Post
    And it starts getting interesting..

    MTC has Avengers listed at 140
    RS has Avengers listed in the mid 160s

    The rule generally says when MTC is lower than RS, it's even lower than MTC lists. Inception defied the rule, so it'll be interesting to see if Avengers does too.

    With the wide spread piracy, it'll be interesting to see if it impacts things any.
    If that's the case, and this doesn't defy trends, it's basically what I said at the start of the thread - this is going to perform on the level of the highest-grossing Marvel studios movies or a bit higher. The audience is essentially the same, just more energized than ever.

    However, the marketing has been insane and this really is an unprecedented sort of movie, so it could very well defy expectations.
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  8. #348

    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Ray G. View Post
    If that's the case, and this doesn't defy trends, it's basically what I said at the start of the thread - this is going to perform on the level of the highest-grossing Marvel studios movies or a bit higher. The audience is essentially the same, just more energized than ever.

    However, the marketing has been insane and this really is an unprecedented sort of movie, so it could very well defy expectations.
    I see this being very front-loaded. Most people who really want to see it will be going on opening weekend.

  9. #349

    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    Some of you might want to adjust your numbers

    Avengers is expected to near 600 million globally by Sunday. Iron Man 2 is the highest Marvel movie at around 620

    http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/aven...hina-openings/

  10. #350
    Lord of the OOMPH!!! Ray G.'s Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Films: Box Office Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by James Patrick View Post
    Some of you might want to adjust your numbers

    Avengers is expected to near 600 million globally by Sunday. Iron Man 2 is the highest Marvel movie at around 620

    http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/aven...hina-openings/
    This thread is not concerned with global numbers!

    Either way, add six more dollars to that. Got my ticket today.
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